Make no mistake about the importance of tonight’s debate.  People will be tuning in for all sorts of reasons.  Will Obama flop again?  I heard so much about this Romney guy’s last debate, I’m going to watch to see what he has to say.

Here’s the downside: It will be nearly impossible for Mitt Romney to do as well as he did in the first debate, and in that sense it will be a letdown for most conservatives.  I’m not saying he won’t do well … but it won’t be the dramatic win like we saw in Denver.  You can expect for Obama to be on his game and ready to rip. 

Romney is at somewhat of a disadvantage with the Town Hall format for tonight’s debate.  We all understand, I think, that Obama is very good at connecting with an audience.  There had to be some reason why someone with absolutely no record of ever having accomplishing anything – someone with friends such as Jeremiah Wright, Bill Ayers and “The Communist” Frank Marshall Davis – could be elected president.   Again … Obama is the politician, Romney is the CEO.  The corporate boss is often not all that good at dealing personally with the troops .. that’s an attribute he looks for in lower-level management.  Romney has been showing improvement in this regard, so we’ll see how he does tonight.  It’s a shame that so many voters will base their decision on which guy seems nicer to them.  But – in the age of the low-knowledge voter that’s the way it is. 

Then we have the ObamaMedia to consider.  Obama’s last debate performance was so terrible, that even the ObamaMedia had to admit that Romney won the debate … though most of them made that observation reluctantly.  So today is the day.  Today is the day when the media can finally start to craft their stories of an Obama comeback.  After all, who doesn’t love a good comeback story?  And this is exactly what the ObamaMedia is going to try and do.  Even if the debate is a “draw,” meaning that both sides hold their own and there isn’t a clear winner, this will ultimately be a “win” for Obama in the eyes of the ObamaMedia. 

The 47%

Here’s where that narrative starts: The 47%.  Appalled that Obama failed to bring up the 47% remark during the first debate, liberals and proggies from around the country will be waiting with baited breath for Obama to sock-it to Romney on this 47% comment.  Trust me, Romney will be ready.  The Obama propagandists have told him that it’s coming.  He’ll be ready.  But no matter how Romney responds – if he ignores it, if he apologies, if he clarifies, if he deflects – the response will not be good enough for the ObamaMedia.  This will be the basis upon which they build Obama’s comeback story.  

The pundits are all atwitter over this one.  Obama is going to nail Romney on that 47% comment … and Romney will be sooooo surprised when that comes up he will surely be completely flummoxed and unable to handle it. Now if you’re a member of the ObamaMedia dedicated to the reelection of Dear Ruler, you’re not going to go out of your way to point out the obvious … that when Romney used the words “care about,” he was referring to his attempts to bring voters over to his side, not how he would conduct himself as president. 

Here … let’s try it this way.  Romney is not a dumb guy.  You don’t give up an inheritance and then reach the level of success Romney has by being a dumb guy.  So, accepting that Romney is smart, which one of the following statements do you think he would be more likely to make in a campaign appearance?

1. As a president I wouldn’t care about the 47 percent of the people who are dependent on government handouts.  I need to concentrate my efforts on those who contribute to our economy.
2. As a campaigner I can’t care about the 47 percent of the voters who are already determined to vote for my opponent.  I need to concentrate my efforts on those who may be persuadable. 

Actually, I disagree with both sentiments.  Those who are dependent on government programs, the 47 percent, should be seen as people who have aspirational dreams for their children.  Perhaps they don’t want their children to live the life of government dependency they’ve followed.  As a campaigner – and I’ll never be a campaigner – I would seek their support as well.  The point here is that anyone with an ounce of sense knows that Romney was speaking in the context of seeking votes, not leading our country.

Having said that … the 47% remark is sure to be on the plate tonight, so I’ve gone through the trouble (no trouble really) to formulate a good response for Romney.  He’ll never read this, nor will anyone connected with his campaign … and that’s a shame.  He should have hired me as a policy advisor long ago.  I could have kept my mouth shut.  You never would have known.

So … in response to a question about the 47% … here you go:

“Well clearly I was directing those remarks toward the dedicated 47% level of support the president enjoys in his reelection effort.  As president my efforts would be directed and dedicated to all Americans, regardless of whether they voted for or support me or not.  America grows in greatness when all of our citizens become full participants in our economy.  So … let me say this to the 47%.  You are an important part of our American fabric … and we need you to bring our economy back and to help restore liberty and opportunity.  I know you have aspirations – hopes and dreams – not only for yourselves but also for your children.  You took a chance four years ago.  If that’s working out for you, fine.  But if it hasn’t – maybe a different direction would be better.  I am – right now – telling you that I DO care and I’m asking for your vote.  Cast your vote with the private job creators, not the creators of government dependency.  The president has said that it was government spending that made America great.  I have a different idea.  What makes America great is free people interacting with one another in a system that promotes economic liberty, not government dependency.  America is falling down the list of countries ranked by economic freedom.  We can reverse that – and when we do all of us will benefit.  My door is open to the 47% -- we need you to help us put America on the road to recovery.” 

OK folks … comments below.  See if you can pick that apart.

Here’s what Romney cannot screw up tonight:

Strong enthusiasm among [Romney] supporters has soared from 26 percent five months ago to 59 percent now, including an 11-point gain in just the past two weeks. And while Obama’s strong enthusiasm is eight points lower than at this point in 2008, strong enthusiasm for Romney — potentially an indicator of voter turnout — is a vast 30 points better than McCain’s four years ago.

He can’t lose momentum with the base.  He has to pick up more independent votes, particular votes from women.  He has to be ready to hit Obama on his abysmal record.  He has to be ready to show how his administration would do things differently.  And he has to be ready to deflect the Chicago thug campaign tactics that are headed his way.  There will be no mercy from a scorned Chicago political machine.  If Romney lets that take charge of the debate, then it’s over.